Lyric discussion by mnchucker 

I agree that this appears to be about a guy that has been routinely hurt by a woman. Based on the first line, "she'll lie and steal and cheat", I get the sense that she potentially has a drug/alcohol/gambling addiction. Hence the need to 'steal'.

He's not giving up on her. Thinks they are close to overcoming the issue/addiction (but doesn't trust what he thinks anymore).

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