Lyric discussion by reubenco 

I think the album cover thing has to be true. I wouldn't have noticed it myself, but that's too uncanny to be a coincidence. So to me, that, along with a lot of other things in this song, suggest that it is about his music career.

According to Wikipedia, the shell game is a game that is supposed to appear as a gambling game but it actually a fraud. Maybe he feels like he's being frauded? This would go along with the verse about when he was a teenager, where he talks about having lost his innocence to the music industry.

I don't know what the "heavy love" part is about, but I don't think it's about his fans. I certainly could be wrong, but that seems a little corny for something written by Conor Oberst.

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